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An estimated 115 members of the Brandon area business community recently attended a presentation on the 2008 Economic Forecast hosted by The Greater Brandon Chamber of Commerce. What guests heard was a mixed forecast for the year based on job growth trends still increasing in 2007 from 2006, but slowing in the final months of the past year and monthly unemployment rate increasing at a relatively quick rate since May 2007. The chief culprit: the slumping housing market, which is causing a negative ripple effect in other industries such as retail, manufacturing, and the transportation sectors, plummeting the local economy to what might be a recession.
The featured speakers were Larry Henson, business intelligence officer for the Tampa Bay Partnership which is an organization focused on stimulating economic growth and economic development in the Tampa Bay area via corporate relocation and business expansion and Kevin Brickey, an economist with the Hillsborough County Management and Budget Department.
"I think the forecast is definitely mixed," said Henson. "Our job growth in 2007 of 22,000 jobs would be considered very good in comparison to other geographic areas of the county. The problem is that over the past 10 years we had a net new jobs average of 40,100 in Tampa Bay. The 2007 numbers do not meet our expectations based on large past job growth years."
Henson pointed out that the Tampa Bay area peaked in terms of job growth in 2004 during which 79.4 thousand new jobs were created. The Professional Services sector was the strongest industry contributing the most to new job creation during the year. However, Henson indicates that the majority of the job growth came in earlier months but that new job creation slowed considerably towards the end of 2007.
Henson indicates the area’s unemployment rate has been trending upward since 2006 figures. "Unemployment rates started to increase over 2006 rates starting in May 2007,” he said. "We should have seen much lower unemployment rates during the holiday season last year. Instead, unemployment increased to 4.9 percent during December which was up from 3.1 percent in 2006 during the same timeframe."
Henson said the main reasons for the increases in unemployment rates were coming from the construction industry. He pointed to a loss of 9,650 jobs in the construction industry at a total cost of $24 million in construction wages for the year. Tampa Bay housing permits were at their lowest point since 2006 at under 500 new single family permits in December 2007 down from an estimated 2,200 single family permits in March 2006.
Robert Cobb, vice president and commercial loan officer for First Citrus Bank, which is located in Brandon at 1314 Oakfield Dr. , said he attended the event because he wanted to keep an eye on the future of business in the Brandon area. "As bankers, the economic impact is really important to us. As lenders in the Brandon area we want to know the economic impact and what the future holds. There have been concerns about the economy and the spillage effect the housing market is having on other businesses in the area. The retail industry is being impacted by the housing industry. It has been slow here lately and we are concerned."
For more information about upcoming events at the Brandon Chamber of Commerce, contact Allison Braden at 689-1221, ext. 36.
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